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Artículo del hilo realizado en twitter: https://twitter.com/lunaticoin/status/1576506563077935106

Una apuesta de 1885

Revisitando la triología de Regreso al Futuro me he quedado con un detalle que me ha hecho reflexionar: 1/ Antes del duelo a muerte entre Marty y Tannen se hacen 2 apuestas de 20 y 30 dólares en oro 🪙

¿A cuánto equivalen en 2022?

$\"\"$

En 1885, 20 años después del fin de la Guerra Civil americana y en pleno momento de Banca Nacional, la onza de oro tenía un precio de 18,94$.

$\"\"$

A octubre de 2022, una onza de oro física (nada de oro papel en el bar de 1885) la podemos conseguir a ~1720$.

$\"Imagen\"$ Imagen

[

En el Bar tenemos 2 apuestas: https://youtu.be/JEsQCm9Q3pk

- una a favor de 20 dólares en oro
- otra en contra de 30

En onzas:

- la primera es de 1,056 oz
- la segunda 1,583 oz

Y esto nos deja con que:

- una apuesta era de 1.816$
- y la segunda de 2.722$

$\"\"$

Los tipos del bar que interpretan los actores Dub Taylor y Harry Carey Jr. ¿iban tan fuerte apostando o se me está escapando algo?

¿O quizá los guionistas establecieron el valor de la apuesta en base al valor del oro de 1990, fecha en la que se estrenó?

$\"\"$

El coste de una onza de oro en 1990 era de ~380$. Si hicieron sus cálculos así, entonces:

- 20$ -> 1,056 oz -> 401,28$
- 30$ -> 1,583 oz -> 601,54$

Los números son más razonables pero sigo con la mosca detrás de la oreja.

$\"\"$

Aunque a los bitcoiners nos encante hacer estas comparativas rápidas, es imposible hacerse una idea del poder de compra de una mercancía (1 oz de oro) en tiempos económicos y sistemas monetarios distintos (1885-2022) desde el valor de una segunda mercancía distinta (el dólar).

Supongo que la única forma correcta sería analizar qué valor tenía una canasta básica en 1885 y evaluar el valor de la apuesta en relación a una canasta de 2022. O comparar salarios.

Por lo que he podido encontrar, en 1885 el salario diario medio en Colorado sumaban unos 650$/año. Eso son 32 onzas/año o 2,6 oz. al mes. Así, nuestros amigos del bar apostaban:

- 20$ -> 1,056 oz -> 40% de salario mensual
- 30$ -> 1,583 oz -> 60% de salario mensual

$\"Imagen\"$ Imagen

[

Este tercer intento creo que da una mejor idea sobre el valor de la cantidad decidida por los guionista que estaban apostando los tipos del bar. Una cantidad más cercana al cambio oz/$ de 1990, que no al de 2022 (pregúntate que ha pasado entre 1990-2022).

Aunque el ejercicio realizado solo sea una reflexión de domingo por la mañana, sí que sirve para ver cuánto se ha depreciado el dólar frente al oro que, aún habiendo multiplicado por 20 su oferta minada, cuesta 86 veces más en 2022 de lo que lo hacía en 1885.

$\"\"$

Links de referencia

Más sobre este momento histórico en el pod #L160 con https://bit.ly/L160_Expropiacion_F
Histórico del oro: https://bit.ly/HistoricoOro
Más sobre dónde y cómo acumular oro y plata física en el #L151 junto a Dragon Oro Plata en https://bit.ly/L151_Oro_Fountain
Salarios de colorado después de la huelga 1881-1886: https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b3986398&view=1up&seq=86&skin=2021

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